In June 2023, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) pulled the curtain back on a sleek, black-painted missile labeled “Fattah” (The Conqueror).
The banner headline was chilling: “Hypersonic.”
Tehran claimed the missile could travel at Mach 15, maneuver inside and outside the atmosphere, and penetrate all existing missile defense systems, specifically naming Israel’s Iron Dome and David’s Sling.
If true, this weapon fundamentally breaks the balance of power in the Middle East. But military history is full of exaggerated claims. Is the Fattah a true hypersonic glide vehicle, or just a faster ballistic missile with a fancy paint job? This analysis dissects the Fattah missile capabilities, the technology behind it, and the skeptical view from Western intelligence.
The Claim: “400 Seconds to Tel Aviv”
The official specifications released by Iran are bold:
Technical Analysis: What is it really?
Looking closely at the images and launch videos, defense experts have categorized the Fattah less as a “Hypersonic Glide Vehicle” (like the Chinese DF-17) and more as a MaRV (Maneuvering Re-entry Vehicle).
The MaRV Engine
The defining feature of Fattah is its nose cone.
1. The main booster launches the missile to space.
2. The warhead separates.
3. As it re-enters the atmosphere, the small motor fires.
4. This allows the warhead to accelerate and, crucially, change direction (maneuver) violently in the designated final phase.
Is it Hypersonic?
Technically, yes. All ballistic missiles are hypersonic (Mach 5+) during re-entry. The Fattah likely hits Mach 13-15 in a dive.
Is it a Glider?
No. It does not appear to have the aerodynamic “lift” shape to glide for thousands of kilometers. It follows a ballistic arc but can “juke” or “zigzag” in the final descent to dodge interceptors.
Integration with existing families
The Fattah seems to be an evolution of the Kheibar Shekan (Castle Buster) missile, which Iran revealed in 2022. The Kheibar Shekan already featured a maneuverable warhead. Fattah adds the dedicated kick-motor to increase speed and agility.
Strategic Threat: The Defenses
The main targets of Fattah are the radar sites of adversaries.
Detection Issues:
Because it is solid-fuel, the launch prep time is short. Detection satellites might see the flash, but the flight time (less than 7-8 minutes for 1,400km) gives defenders almost zero margin for error.
Western Skepticism
While acknowledging the advancement, Western experts urge caution regarding the “invincible” claims.
1. Speed Bleed: Maneuvering costs energy. If the missile turns, it slows down. A missile maneuvering at Mach 15 creates immense drag and heat. It is unlikely it can sustain high maneuvers and high speed simultaneously.
2. Guidance Blackout: At Mach 15, plasma sheathing blocks radar. How does the missile find its target? It likely relies on Inertial Navigation (INS), which drifts. Its accuracy (CEP) might not be as high as claimed.
3. Israel’s Response: Israel announced the development of “Sky Sonic,” a dedicated hypersonic interceptor, days after the Fattah unveil. This suggests Israel takes the threat seriously but believes it has a technological answer.
Regional Proliferation
The unveiling of Fattah triggered shockwaves in Riyadh and Abu Dhabi. It accelerates the desire for:
Conclusion
The Fattah represents a significant leap in Iranian missile engineering. It shows they have mastered solid-fuel precision and thrust-vectoring re-entry vehicles. Whether it is a “true” hypersonic weapon or just a very fast, wiggly ballistic missile is semantics; the result is a weapon that is harder to shoot down than anything Iran had before.
It moves the Middle East into a new phase of the arms race: The race between the Maneuvering Missile and the Hypersonic Interceptor.
Disclaimer: Technical assessment based on visual evidence and analysis by Breaking Defense and Jane’s.